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Brexit Trumped

Donald Trump has always been the person who courts controversy regarding himself as a plain speaker and a disruptor of the status quo. His state visit to the UK this week will be like a large pebble being dropped in to a pond that is the current political turmoil surrounding Brexit with repercussions being felt long after his visit.

Prior to his visit, Trump ordained Boris Johnson who is regarded as the darling of the conservative party and favourite to be May’s successor ignoring the other 12 candidates standing alongside him. Assuming that Boris becomes the next leader of the conservatives and so Prime Minister will he achieve change given the arithmetic that May faced in Parliament will not change.

I understand that negotiations can be difficult and there is merit in tackling the difficult subjects first. However, there are two main elements for the UK leaving the EU and perhaps May should have insisted on discussing the divorce bill and the future relationship in tandem, rather than making one dependent on the other as demanded by the EU.

Trump, even on his first visit to the UK said that the UK should not pay the EU £39 billion that was demanded but instead the UK should “walk away” if it does not get what it wants.

Parliament is paralysed as it cannot agree on what it wants or does not want other than there is a desire that there must be a deal with the EU.  But is Trump right? Should the UK walk away as even last week Sir Peter Marshall (former Assistant Secretary-General of the Foreign and Commonwealth Office) ,said again “by the EU insisting on discussing the financial settlement first and phasing the discussions it has broken the rules within Article 50 which provide that the EU should negotiate and conclude any withdrawal agreement taking account of the future relationship with the Union.” Thus, there should not have been phasing of the discussions.

Will the next Prime Minister accept the EU’s redline that the withdrawal deal cannot be reopened or will he/she take Trump’s advice and walk away if discussions are not reopened knowing that there is then only the WTO rules to fall back on.

Ultimately, will the next Prime Minister be a disruptor or be someone who maintains the status quo